Technology Predictions:

William Sherden points out in The Fortune Sellers, that it is impossible to accurately predict what advancements in technology the future will bring. I agree with his assessment, however; despite the seemingly impossible task, this hasn't stopped experts from trying to peer into their crystal ball for a glimpse of the future. A great resource for past, current, and future predictions is Imagining the Internet: a History and Forecast, a project hosted by Elon University. I think it is interesting to read predictions, because oftentimes they are made by the visionaries who push industry forward.

One such visionary is Marc Andreessen, who in 1993 co-authored Mosaic, the first web-browser. During a video interview conducted in June of 1995, Marc stated that "Ten years from now I would like to think ... [there will be] multi-megabit data access just about everywhere, including wireless; the price of multiprocessors should have plummeted by a lot ... You're going to get megabits of data while you're eating, and you are not even going to think twice about it. I don't think we even have the slightest idea of what that's going to mean."

In 1995, I was one of the "lucky few" to have broadband Internet access at home, with 128Kbps ISDN service. At the time, most Internet services were metered, meaning you had to pay based upon your usage. I could only dream about unlimited, multi-megabit data access, such as Marc described. So how accurate was his prediction?

Cox Broadband 2000: 1.5-3.0 Mbps

Fast forward to 2000. Many broadband providers, including Cox Cable started offering 1.5 Mb plans. By 2005, they were offing 5Mb plans.

Cox Broadband 2005: 4-5 Mbps