As an amateur radio operator, I’ve been playing around with wireless computing since the early 1990’s. Back then; the wifi equivalent was having a 300 baud packet connection into a HAM bulletin board. In 1997, the 802.11 specification was finalized, and the first mainstream wireless 2 megabit connectivity was born. Within just a couple of years, 802.11b was announced, which introduced a huge speed increase, up to 11Mbps. In 2003, 802.11g brought with it speeds of up to 54Mbps. Products based on the draft 802.11n specification have been available since 2006, which are capable of speeds up to 250Mbps. The 802.11n specification is due to be finalized in mid 2008. I put together the time-line and chart below to help illustrate the rapid performance increases and mark major wireless milestones.
In that ten-year span, the industry has been able to increase wireless speeds by a multiple of five, every two to three years. Products based on draft specifications are available soonest, and once the spec is fully ratified it becomes the defacto-standard for products on the shelves. It then takes several years to become broadly deployed in the mainstream. Given these trends I expect to see products capable of 500Mbps speeds, based upon draft standards to emerge by 2010, and to be fully ratified by 2012.
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